I started this writing this before the war in the Middle East broke out, which just goes to show how volatile the world is currently. As impending cost increases loom, the constant changes prevalent in the world means we might ask one helpful question:
How do we live with uncertainty?
For many years now, being certain has been considered a sign of credibility, of knowing your stuff and being aware of your organisation, market and competitive environment. It can be a sign of confidence, of expertise, a safe pair of hands. Internally, being certain provides us with a sense of being in control and helps us to feel safe.
However, times are changing. The sense of a certain future is quickly crumbling. For many years, organisations have been aware of the VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous) world. Now BANI is the new acronym on the block (Brittle, Anxious, Non-linear and Incomprehensible pretty much sums up how we might be feeling about things).
In addition, in our leadership, wanting to be certain may mean that we feel more comfortable operating in our technical expertise, focussing on day-to-day operational problems which we know how to solve, rather than growing our ability to step into a broader role. The knock-on effect can be retaining control of decisions that could (and should) be made by others. Ultimately this wastes time, energy, the potential for growth and hampers productivity, innovation and proactive change.
What’s the problem with wanting to be certain?
In our daily lives, it’s easier to stick with what we think we know, than to deal with uncertainty, even though much of what we feel certain about are simply assumptions that help us feel in control and safe. But in a world which is increasingly uncertain, feeling certain is far riskier than acknowledging and adapting to that uncertainty, because it can cause:
- Failures in organisational initiatives due to over-confidence and flawed thinking
- Stress and burnout: the need to feel we have to have all the answers all of the time leads to poor health
- Resistance to change
- A lack of critical thinking which reduces effective decision making, problem-solving and learning
- Psychologically unsafe environment – people feel afraid to contradict very confident voices who dominate discussions
- Low self-esteem: when we realise we were wrong about something we were so certain of, it can damage our sense of self
- Damaged relationships: being overly certain in our views can cause binary arguments (I’m right, you’re wrong)
- Reduced trust: when we are shown to be wrong despite our certainty, it may cause others to question our credibility in the future
- Fear of feedback: the need to be certain means we may avoid feedback, which reduces our ability to learn and grow
“The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts”
What causes us to want certainty?
- We’re wired to want to feel safe, and certainty and predictability brings a sense of safety
- Staying in our comfort zone feels safe and we worry about making mistakes or looking silly if we move into our stretch or learning zone to try something new
- Being certain is still seen as a sign of strength in most workplaces. Our ego wants others to see us as competent, and (let’s be honest) sometimes superior to others
- Illusion of control bias: the tendency to overestimate our ability to control events, even when they’re largely determined by chance
- Optimism bias: the tendency to believe that bad things won’t happen to us, even if we see them happening to others
- Confirmation bias: the tendency to look for information that reinforces what we ‘know’ already, rather than seeking alternative information
- Black and white thinking: thinking in absolutes causes an inability to find middle ground or thinking in ‘grey’
- Group think: the phenomenon where groups conform to a particular viewpoint, in order to belong and avoid conflict
- Commitment bias: the tendency to continue to commit to a course of action or thinking, even when it is no longer the wisest route (especially if that commitment is public)
In short, in many instances, we’d rather feel safe and be wrong than to feel uncertain.
Why would we want to be more comfortable with uncertainty?
Learning to live with uncertainty helps us to:
- Feel less anxious and helpless in the face of increasing unpredictability
- Be more open and adaptable to change
- Make better decisions as we reduce bias by considering other ways of looking at things
- Connect more easily with others – especially those who are different from us
- Shows others that we are willing to learn and listen to other views and opinions
- Seek the facts and evidence which represent all sides of a discussion point
- Develop our critical thinking skills
- Develop our inner resources – particularly our emotional intelligence and wisdom – which increase our resilience
- Increases our sense of agency when we recognise that we can move forwards by learning and collaborating with others, rather than having all the answers
- Help others to learn and grow by asking curious questions rather than telling them what we think
How do we get comfortable with uncertainty?
The focus is not on deciding what to be certain or uncertain about. It’s about learning to be OK with uncertainty in general:
- Recognise that very little in life is certain. As scary as that can feel initially, it is in fact very liberating. Clinging on to certainty simply creates anxiety, as we become less able to cope with any unanticipated change.
- Focus on what is genuinely within your immediate influence, rather than worrying about things that are outside of your control.
- Nurture a growth mindset – the belief that you can change and improve. When we develop our inner resources (our beliefs, capabilities, emotional intelligence,
relational skills), we learn that we can deal with uncertainty far better than we thought.
- Manage your ego – especially if part of your current identity includes knowing ‘the answer’ and being in control. Letting go of this slowly, and replacing it with a new part of your identity such as ‘I’m the kind of person who’s curious and listens to alternative views’ is a helpful way to manage your ego’s need to be right.
- Become more aware of the world around youand how it’s changing. Increasing your systemic awareness can help you to prepare and anticipate how you will adapt.
- Developing your critical thinking skills can help you to find an optimal solution by proactively seeking out alternative views and evidence.
- Ask open questions rather than stating your own views. Practicing curiosity and active listening can help you learn far more than talking about what you think you already know
- Practice using language which allows you to change your mind, e.g. “I think, I sense, I believe, In my opinion…”, “Let’s explore what we know and don’t know”.
- Develop a solid and diverse network – collaborating with people who have different areas of knowledge and expertise will help you to tap into this when needed, as well as being a great source of support
- Act based on your or your organisations’ core values: what you feel the right thing to do is, rather than what you believe the outcome will be as a result. You can’t be certain of any outcome, but you can feel certain when your actions align with your values
In an age of increasing uncertainty, developing our inner resources and supporting others to do the same will help you to continuously evolve and adapt, giving you the confidence to be resilient and even thrive in unpredictability.
If you’re curious to find out more about how you or your organisation can do this in practice, hit reply or drop me a line at kate@kate-smith-consulting.co.uk
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Photo by 愚木混株 Yumu on Unsplash
